A Florida-based research scientist is predicting this year’s hurricane season to be above average, with 7 hurricanes and three to four major hurricanes.
According to Professor David Dilley, a scientist at hurricane prediction organization Global Weather Oscillations, there are several factors in place to produce another above average hurricane season this year.
The professor predicts this year will see 16 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and three to four major hurricanes. The US can expect five named storms to make landfall and two or three hurricane landfalls – one of which will likely be a major category 3 hurricane.
The preliminary outlook for next year looks even grimmer – with 20 named storms, 11 hurricanes, 6 major hurricanes. In addition, the US will likely have 4 to 5 hurricane landfalls in 2021 – with 3 being major (category 3-5) hurricanes.
Dilley says says several favorable meteorological and climatological factors are in place to produce another above average hurricane season this year (2020), and during next year’s 2021 season which will likely be similar to the very destructive and severe 2004 hurricane season.
Some of the factors include a 72-year ClimatePulse Hurricane Landfall Enhancement Cycle - coupled with the continuance of above normal warm Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico water temperatures - and the lack of either a moderate or strong El Niño to subdue the hurricane seasons.
The historical long-term average for hurricane seasons shows that a season typically averages about 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2-3 major hurricanes (category 3 to 5). But, due to the Enhanced ClimatePulse Cycle and warm ocean waters during the past four years (2016 through 2019), the average for this time period rose to 16 named storms – 8 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes.
Research by Professor Dilley indicates that the now occurring enhanced landfall cycle returns every 72-years and coincides with recurring 72-year warm ocean cycles and global warming cycles. Past cycles occurred in the 1940s to early 1950s, and in the 1880s.
All three cycles since the late 1800s saw an increase in hurricane landfalls and destructive storms. Professor Dilley says that these enhanced hurricane landfall cycles are induced by naturally occurring interactions between the earth-moon-sun.